Protestors in an anti-Israeli gathering hold up Iranian and Palestinian flags, Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025
Why did Israel jump the gun?
The Israeli Defence Forces called the aerial attack on Iran by some 200 planes in the early hours of Friday, June 13, as a “preemptive strike.” International law gives no scope to attack a country over 1000 kms away on a vague pretext of ‘self-defence’ — or, ‘an immediate operational necessity.’
The UN Charter allows acts in self-defence, but there is nothing that Iran has done in the recent period — at least after President Donald Trump returned to the White House — that can be construed as threatening Israel. Israelis claim to have significantly weakened Iran’s capacity to threaten their country.
So, call it naked aggression. The statement by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to distance the US from Israeli strikes stressing that “Israel took unilateral action” and had advised Washington that “they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence.”
Trump had been telling Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu that such attacks would only undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. The sixth round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to take place in Muscat on June 15.
Rubio’s statement underscored that “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” Rubio did not make the slightest attempt to voice US support for Israel in defending against any Iranian counterstrikes. This is extremely unusual.
The big question is, what forced Netanyahu’s hands — apart from the obvious one of distracting attention from the aggravating domestic political crisis?
One factor is that his personal equations with Trump have been steadily going south, especially since the removal of Mike Waltz on May 1 from the crucial post of National Security Advisor, a key policy-shaping role in the White House.
Waltz’s reassignment as ambassador to the UN came in the aftermath of the so-called “Signalgate” incident, but with hindsight, his leaning towards aggressive military action against arch foe Iran too weighed on Trump’s decision.
No sooner than Waltz lost his position, a purge of key foreign policy and national security positions in the White House began. Known ‘Iran hawks’ whom Waltz had handpicked to assist him have been shuffled out while ‘America First’ realists are in ascent.
They include Eric Trager, who was heading the Middle East and North Africa portfolios for the National Security Council who is considered an ‘Iran hawk’ whom Waltz brought into the post from the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Again, Morgan Ortagus, considered one of the “strongest pro-Israel supporters in the administration,” was shuffled out of her role as the Lebanon envoy under Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff.
According to YNet News, Ortagus’ removal from the position “stunned officials in Jerusalem, where she is viewed as closely aligned with Israeli interests.” Also, Merav Ceran (an Israeli-American who was a former official in Israel’s Ministry of Defense) has been removed from the Iran and Israel desk in the National Security Council.
Certainly, Israel’s moles who favoured war over diplomacy with Iran, have been shown the door while the president himself is negotiating with Iran to curb its nuclear program! (See a fuller account of the White House changes in two reports by the Responsible Statecraft website of Quincy Institute — here , here and here.)
Israelis claim that there was “full and complete coordination” with the Americans ahead of Friday’s attacks but the sentiment has not yet been echoed in Rubio’s statement. Admittedly, Rubio did issue a warning for Iran: “Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.” But that is more of a red line.
Another sensitive factor at work is the growing pressure on Trump from some recognised figures in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) camp backing him, such as Steve Bannon, former chief White House strategist and influential figure. They warn Trump against a hawkish foreign policy stance, particularly by way of support for military interventions abroad, as that is fraught with the risk of splintering the MAGA camp, which would be politically damaging.
Finally, there is the big picture of geopolitical realignments. Last fortnight was a critical period. The audacious Ukrainian attack on Russian nuclear triad on June 1 prompted a call from Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin within forty-eight hours.
The outcome of their conversation appears to be that: i) US-Russia constructive engagement must run its course; ii) diplomacy will continue on the Ukraine issue even while new facts on the ground may keep shaping diplomacy; and iii) the US is decoupling from European allies in the proxy war in Ukraine.
The stunning part of the phone call was that Trump sought Putin’s intervention in Iran nuclear issue. Putin agreed to help. Only a week later, Iran’s government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani was quoted by Russia’s state RIA news agency as saying, “Putin’s trip to Tehran is currently being worked out, preparations are underway.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds Putin in great esteem. Succinctly put, Israel’s worst nightmare is coming true — US-Iran negotiations gaining in the statesmanlike gravitas of a world leader. Without doubt, Putin knows that this could be potentially a game changer in Russia-US relations as resolution of the Iran issue remains critical to the stabilisation of the Middle East and further opportunities may arise to address the Middle East crisis, including the Palestine issue.
Evidently, time is running out for Israel. And Netanyahu has chosen to act now, whether Trump likes it or not. From the Iranian perspective, advantage lies in continuing the talks with Steve Witkoff in Muscat on Sunday. Any attack on the US bases in the region is avoidable in the retaliation that can be expected for sure. Let Israel stew in its aggression. Hurt them where it matters most in the upcoming war.
BBC reported that “In the hours before Thursday’s attacks, US officials were briefing that there would be no American support in the event of Israeli action, even going as far as to say they would not help with any aerial refuelling. That was meant for Tehran’s consumption.”
Trump’s first reaction to Israeli strikes is also in the nature of a case for negotiations and compromise:
“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.
“I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.
“Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!
“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.
“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!”