America’s peacemaking president Donald Trump emerges out of White House after wrapping up a ceasefire in the war in West Asia, heading for the Netherlands for the 2025 NATO Summit that marks a consolidation of the western alliance system under US leadership, Washington, DC, June 23, 2025
Trump won’t brook opposition to peace talks with Iran
As the 12-day war ends in the Middle East, it is abundantly clear that the conflict erupted almost entirely due to Israel’s plan to undermine the US-Iran talks. Israel feared that fundamentally, both Washington and Tehran sought an improvement of relations, which would be a historic reconciliation ushering in a New Middle East, where its regional hegemony would be at risk.
The destruction of Iraq and Syria testifies to what extent Israel would go to pin down the US foreign policy strategy to the old groove despite nagging awareness in Washington’s thoughtful circles, including the CIA, over the years that without addressing the Iran question, American diplomacy in West Asia would remain sub-optimal.
Barack Obama realised this but wouldn’t take the bull by its horns. Joe Biden also knew this but became a victim of the Russophobia that warped his thinking, and Iran got relegated to the back burner. Things were in drift until the October 7 attacks on Israel. The rest is history.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is clear-headed that he has three major foreign policy challenges to be sorted out in the four years ahead — Russia, Iran and China. Arguably, he prefers to handle the three areas sequentially but also realises that is not feasible or even advisable.
Thus, Trump found himself reopening the Iran file. Paradoxically, he saw Iran reconciliation as a low-hanging fruit, although it is an incredibly complicated issue where memory mixes with desire.
The mitigating factor is that although the US’ capacity to influence the region’s politics is in decline and interventionism no longer an option, West Asia has transformed beyond recognition during the four years he was out of power. Trump feels emboldened that Iran has much greater acceptability in its neighbourhood than ever before and this allows out-of-the-box solutions.
The nomination of Steve Witkoff as special envoy for Middle East was the first sure sign that Trump was aiming at a paradigm shift on a grand scale where Iran nuclear issue was only one segment. Indeed, it is a stunning turnaround that Trump sees potential to tap into normalisation with Iran to create synergy for ‘America First’.
Trump sees that American interests are best served through Iran’s integration into the Western market. He is shrewd enough to assess that basically, Iran’s elites (and the influential Tehran bazaar) desired good relations with the US. The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president was an affirmation of the national mood and the religious establishment’s refusal to block his ascendance was a massive signal that winds of change were sweeping over Iran.
When I visited Iran to observe the presidential election last year, it was apparent that Iran was not only ready for reconciliation with the US but also favoured Trump to emerge in the November election, the consensus opinion being that they could do business with the billionaire-businessman president. It, actually, left me wondering at times whether Iranian elites were already quietly talking to Trump’s circle.
When I returned from Tehran, I wrote in the wake of Pezeshkian’s victory, that we should anticipate a ‘Look West’ shift in Iran’s foreign policy strategy.
However, Israel refuses to budge from its maximalist stance that Iran should capitulate — ie., not only surrender its rights to enrich uranium but must roll back its conventional deterrent capability as well. Predictably, it turned out to be the deal breaker in Witkoff’s negotiations.
To my mind, the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites and Iran’s acquiescence thereof has since cut this Gordian knot so that talks can be resumed after the 12-day interruption! One crucial detail here, unreported by the Western press, is that days before the US strike, Iran’s foreign ministry had already announced the transfer of enriched uranium from the nuclear sites!
Suffice it to say, Iran is not contesting Trump’s triumphant claim that the US “obliterated” the nuclear programme. The word play reminds me that the US-Iranian standoff all along has had traits of a pantomime of love-hate between an estranged couple.
Trump couldn’t care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran’s ‘de-nuclearisation’ and ‘de-militarisation.’ Certainly, he has no time for Netanyahu’s agenda to force a regime collapse in Iran or a break-up of Iran along ethnic lines, etc. Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as partner in America First.
While for Netanyahu, this war is an extension of the so-called Greater Israel project, there isn’t a shred of evidence that Trump is a votary of Zionism. The plain truth is: Israel has taken a beating from Iran like it never took in its entire life story. Israel’s missile stockpiles, especially interceptors, have been depleted and the US has only limited capacity to replenish, while Iran still has a vast stockpile of tens of thousands of missiles.
Israel’s much-vaunted air defence capability turned out to be dysfunctional in combat conditions. And, Trump will not hesitate to browbeat Netanyahu if push comes to shove. By now, Netanyahu would knows pretty much about Trump’s explosive fury littered with expletives if provoked.
Evidently, Trump also feels the imperative need to preserve the backing of the MEGA movement, his core political constituency, which is anchored on his vociferous commitment as a peacemaking president who will never allow another interventionist war abroad. Therefore, the bottom line is that the ceasefire should hold rather well. Don’t worry!
The message from the 2025 NATO Summit in the Netherlands is that the entire western world has rallied behind Trump. Possibly, Russia and China also see these geopolitical realities, which may explain the belated decisions by Putin and Xi Jinping to skip the upcoming BRICS summit in Brazil.
I expect US-Iran talks to begin any day. There is a sense of urgency on both sides, as evident from Trump’s announcement waiving sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and specifically allowing China to buy Iranian oil.
Trump is pacifying Tehran so that oil flows smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz. But the main thing about Trump’s announcement is that he justified it by saying Iran needs money for its reconstruction after the war and oil exports should help!
We should anticipate a big Saudi role going forward. That is the impression I get from Pezeshkian’s conversation with Saudi Crown Prime Mohammed bin Salman. They see in MBS a visionary. Tehran wants MBS to come on board Iran’s normalisation process with the US so that it gains in gravitas.
This is Persian ingenuity at its best for the remaking of ‘Muslim West Asia’, putting behind the tragic history of Shia-Sunni sectarian divides created by foreigners, which pitted Muslims against Muslims.
What is there in all this for Trump himself? To be sure, Trump and Witkoff envisage that economic cooperation with Iran will be a game changer for America First. As a potential energy supplier for Europe to replace Russian oil, Iran’s integration will help Europe’s economic revival, which boosts US’ pre-eminence on the global stage.
With a hugely successful NATO Summit wrapped up at the Netherlands, Trump is preparing to end the 47-year old rift with Iran to pave the way for a New West Asia. This week must be counted as the finest hour of Trump’s five-month old presidency. Trump is closer than ever to claim the Nobel as America’s peacemaking president.