Russian President Vladimir Putin (3rd from left on top) met with heads of international news agencies, St. Petersburg, June 19, 2025
Putin in reflective mood muses on US-Iran confrontation
The US President Donald Trump who sought President Vladimir Putin’s active help a fortnight ago to mediate in the negotiations over Iran nuclear issue has abruptly changed his mind. In retrospect, Putin probably showed undue enthusiasm no sooner than Trump sought his help, and even mooted a trip to Iran shortly to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but only to realise just days later that Trump had other thoughts on his impressionable mind following the Camp David meeting with his aides and advisors and has since wandered into strange thoughts, including such tragic notions as decapitation of the Iranian leader. (here and here)
Putin’s terse remarks to a group of senior foreign journalists in St.Petersburg on Wednesday were made in a sombre mood. Putin wouldn’t answer a pointed question from Reuters as to what he thought of Trump’s shocking hint a day earlier in a Truth Social post that he might order the assassination of Khamenei.
Perhaps, it was a folly on Putin’s part to rush into playing second fiddle to Trump on the highly complicated Iran nuclear problem, blithely ignoring that this is quintessentially a geopolitical problem too, where the interests of the US and Russia do not necessarily converge.
In reality, Russian-Iranian relations are no less complex than the US-Russia tango. The two countries had a deeply troubled common history. During World War 2, Soviet forces even occupied Tehran in cahoots with Britain; earlier, imperial Russia carved out vast territories of the Persian Empire and annexed them. How could Iranians forget all that?
In an article in January when Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a strategic partnership treaty, I had written that the event in Moscow signified at best a breakthrough in the ties but the road ahead would be long and winding. I estimated that the treaty was “an attempt to build guardrails so as to enable a new trajectory of relationship in mutual interests.” (See Russia-Iran treaty signifies a ‘breakthrough’ in ties, Indian Punchline, January 24, 2025)
Curiously, Article 3 of the treaty painstakingly flags the maleficent activities that both sides should avoid and goes on to commit both sides not to help either side’s adversary in a conflict situation! What sort of strategic partnership can be a treaty with such caveats and mutual suspicions?
At the media event in St.Petersburg on Wednesday, Putin revealed that it was Iran who did not want a mutual defence clause to be included in the treaty (as Russia has with North Korea) — and, furthermore, that in the emergent circumstances while battling the US-Israeli juggernaut, Tehran has not so far sought any help from Moscow!
There is an abject lesson here for Trump, too. Iran is a fiercely independent country which, no doubt, is interested to have a productive relationship with the US, but the question, from the US perspective, is how to go about it. Certainly, it cannot be the John Wayne way.
Where the US failed repeatedly is also on this score — its inability or refusal to seek an equal relationship with Iran based on mutual respect. If Trump carries out a decapitation of the Iranian leader, he might as well forget about a normalisation of the US-Iran relationship for decades to come. And its debilitating consequence will be that even the US’ residual influence in the West Asian region will drain away within Trump’s presidency. In fact, any such incredibly stupid act may even lead to the emergence of a ultra-nationalistic nuclear weapon state.
Iran question needs to be handled with subtlety and sophistication. A hugely successful businessman like Trump ought to have the sense of realism (and pragmatism) to know the art of the possible.
Putin told on Wednesday, “We see that today in Iran with all the complexity of the internal political processes taking place there – we know about it, and I think there is no point in going into depth – but still there is a consolidation of society around the political leadership of the country. This happens almost always and everywhere, and Iran is no exception.” In short, Putin noted that a regime change in Iran to Washington’s satisfaction will remain a pipe dream.
Second, Putin said referring to Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and missile manufacturing defence industry, “I will only repeat what we know and hear from all sides, these underground factories, they exist, nothing has happened to them — And in this connection, it seems to me that it would be right for all of us to seek ways to end the hostilities together …This is a delicate question, and of course you need to be very careful here. But, in my opinion, in general such a solution can be found.”
This is the best advice Trump can hope to get from any quarter today from within his circle or from foreigners. The level of trust and cooperation in the nuclear field between Russia and Iran is very high and Trump should have no difficulty to tap into it.
Putin disclosed that Moscow has given “certain signals to our Iranian friends. And in general it is possible to secure Iran’s interests in the field of peaceful nuclear energy and at the same time go out to allay concerns on the part of Israel regarding its security.
“Such options, in my opinion, there are. We have outlined them, I repeat, to all our partners: and the United States, and Israel, and even to Iran. We’re not imposing anything on anyone – just talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation. But the solution, of course, lies behind the political leadership of all these countries, above all Iran and Israel.”
Frankly, Iran is not an easy country to negotiate with. It can be stubborn as a mule while defending its national interests and preserving strategic autonomy. The collective consciousness of a civilisation state going back to circa 700 BC must be reckoned with. Putin pointed out that Russia had once offered to jointly develop an integrated air defence system for Iran but “the [Iranian] partners did not show much interest, and that’s it.” Look at the irony of it today!
Putin probably senses that a US intervention in Iran is in the cards. Of course, he is a worried man. Putin’s advice to both Netanyahu and Trump is deceptively simple: “You should always look at whether the goal is achievable or not when starting something.”