The Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s characterisation of the reports suggesting the US could impose a 100 percent tariff on countries such as India that import Russian oil as speculative cannot be taken as a statement of fact. “We don’t comment on speculation,” he told the media. On closer look, it is an evasive remark.
What is absolutely certain is that the US Congress will pass the bill. In the amended form, the bill tightens US sanctions against Russia — and Iran. It passed its second procedural vote in the US Senate on Wednesday. Eighty-four senators voted to launch debates on the document, while 12 were against.
The final voting can even be expected by the end of the week. The bill envisages restrictions on Russia and Iran’s political and military leaders and state-owned companies as well as secondary sanctions against the two countries’ trade partners. Senators also proposed a 100% tariff for the five main buyers of Russian oil.
Earlier on Wednesday, Trump actually supported the bill and remarked that he saw no need for the House of Representatives to interrupt the parliamentary recess in August to review the bill. The bill is a veritable reality now. The bill leaves it to Trump’s discretion entirely to decide on the implementation of the sanctions.
Equally, it remains a pious hope still that the tortuous negotiations over the first tranche of India’s trade agreement with the US, announced by Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 3 is just round the corner.
The catch is, we are pinning hopes that Trump first accedes to our wish to be granted a comparative advantage over our competitors, namely, countries in our neighbourhood, the ASEAN region “and other nations with whom we compete,” as Goyal remarked yesterday.
We just saw that although the US’ temporary 150-day 10% global tariff expired on July 24, Washington immediately replaced it with permanent Section 301 forced-labor duties of 10% to 12.5% targeting over 60 trading partners, including India.
In fact, unlike competitors such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Malaysia, India did not receive a textile and apparel tariff-rate quota (TRQ) exemption for using US-origin cotton, putting Indian apparel exports at a relative price disadvantage. Also, products already governed by Section 232 (such as steel, aluminium, and copper) continue to face separate existing structural tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%.
Curiously, under the new Section 301 rules effective July 24, India actually faces severe competitiveness disadvantages in its key export sectors when compared to Mexico and Bangladesh. Simply put, while all three nations technically occupy the baseline 10% tariff tier, specific country exemptions for the other two countries leave India uniquely exposed.
Bangladesh has secured a specialised Textile TRQ Mechanism, whereby a specific volume of Bangladeshi apparel is allowed to enter the US free of tariff, provided they use US-sourced raw cotton and fibre. Whereas, India did not receive a textile mechanism or quota exception. Consequently, Indian ready-made garments face an additional 10% duty stacked on top of regular MFN rates, making Indian textiles significantly more expensive than Bangladeshi exports in the US market. So much for our insistence on preferential tariffs vis-a-vis competitors!
The most controversial element of the Russia sanctions bill is the possibility of Washington imposing duties on countries purchasing Russian energy resources (so-called secondary duties). The document states that it is the president’s prerogative to make the final decision to impose new duties. Does it instil confidence?
Indeed, Trump has already used secondary tariffs against India. On August 6, 2025, he signed an executive order “Countering Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation.” An additional punitive tariff of 25% was imposed on India, effectively increasing the then-current tariff rate on India to 50%. Succinctly put, the Graham bill effectively restores Trump’s ability to impose tariffs above 15%.
Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (an affiliate of foreign ministry) has compared the bill to a gun that Trump could keep on the table and brandish in hopes of extracting concessions from the other side. Timofeev emphasised: ”Trump’s support for the law is unlikely to have any impact on Russian policy. Perhaps it will add a psychological effect. Even from a purely pragmatic perspective, what’s the point of seriously considering this factor in political calculations if it doesn’t change anything de facto?”
Arguably, the bill is supposed to be another way to pressure Russia to extract further concessions in the Ukrainian conflict. However, anyone who knows Russian history would know that country will never compromise when its core interests are in jeopardy. And the ground reality is that Russian policy has perceptively hardened lately and is now focusing on a military solution that ensures there won’t be another war. Trump cannot but be aware of that too.
Addressing a meeting of naval officers in St. Petersburg recently, Putin hinted at what Eurasia’s map would look like in a conceivable future: “I am confident that sooner or later Ukraine will lose these western territories [west of Dnieper River], lands that once belonged to Poland, Hungary and Romania. It may not happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It may take one year, two years, 10 years or 15 years, but history will ultimately put everything back in its place.
“There was only one guarantor of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It was Russia. But they decided it was necessary, possible and beneficial for them to declare Russia their enemy,” Putin sardonically noted.
It is plain to see that the bill’s real objective is to derail India’s time-tested strategic partnership with Russia. Graham never really cared to hide this unpleasant truth. Make no mistake, this is a bipartisan legislation which has had strong backing from members in both parties for over a year. And it advanced on an 86-12 vote in the 100-member senate.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), the co-author of the bill, said the measure is intended to punish China and India for financing Russia’s war with their purchases of Russian energy. As he put it, “To be really blunt, China and India are the main culprits here. They purchase the vast majority of oil and gas. They are fuelling Russia’s war machine and they are doing us no favours anywhere else in the world.”
China should have been a ‘natural ally’ for India in countering the US pressure going forward. On the contrary, the government threw its weight with gusto behind the recent US-led statement of a clutch of western countries to reaffirm the 2016 ruling against China’s South China Sea claims, whose sole objective was to annoy China. What was the urgency? Beijing has reacted sharply.
Goyal’s evasive remark is shocking. A comprador mindset is tantamount to betraying national interest.