Don’t expect US-Iran war before 2021

(Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders report directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R))  There is no reason to disbelieve the boast by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming credit personally for US President Donald Trump’s decision to designate Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a “foreign terrorist organisation” under American law. It …

Trump’s Golan is a megalomaniac’s own goal

(Syria defending against Israeli missiles attacking Damascus, January 2019) The US President Donald Trump’s decree on March 26 granting official US recognition to Israel’s illegal annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights does not create any new fact on the ground.  Trump’s motivations are fairly clear — boost Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects in the April election …

Trump’s Golan move shows US contempt for international law and rules-based order

(Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967) The US President Donald Trump’s tweet on Thursday that the United States should back Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967, didn’t quite come like a bolt from the blue. There has been talk about such a thing for sometime. Last December, the …

With eye on US, Iran revs up ‘resistance front’

(Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force visiting the frontline somewhere in Iraq.) A new phase is beginning in Iran’s approach to the situation since last May when the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran had thus far prioritised the consolidation of Western opinion against President Trump’s decision with a …

Iraq seeks US presence but rejects occupation

(Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif personally briefs Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Grand Ayatollah Bashir Hussain Najafi at his home in Najaf, regarding the Iran nuclear deal, before a visit to the Imam Ali shrine in the city, 27 July 2015.)  The US President Donald Trump has been struggling to terminate America’s ‘endless wars’, but without much …

Putin’s firewall around Russia-Turkey partnership

(Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Turkish President Recep Erdogan following joint press conference at the Kremlin, Moscow, Jan 23, 2019)  The much-awaited meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his visiting Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan in Moscow last Wednesday focused on the the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. The timeframe of the US …

Trump has mixed signals for Astana partners

(Turkey deploys battle tanks on border with Syria.) Trump’s tweets earlier today regarding Syrian withdrawal plan came out of the blue – “Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey …

Why Mattis’ exit is a defining moment in US foreign policy

  (“We are going to appoint ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis as our secretary of defense,” Donald Trump, Jan 2017)  Within the week, President Trump’s sudden announcement of “total” troop withdrawal from Syria has ripped apart the American political system and exposed its fault lines. Trump’s decision is intrinsically a sound one. He didn’t start the Syrian …