Highly decorated Russian general Andrey Mordvichev, 49, who distinguished himself in the assault on Mariupol port city (2022) and the Battle of Avdiivka (2023-2024), two defining moments in the Ukraine conflict, has been appointed as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces on May 15, 2025 amidst expectations of a major Russian offensive on the anvil in summer
May 16 will stand out as a turning point, for good or bad, in the Ukraine conflict. The main thing is, Russia-Ukraine ‘peace talks’ have resumed in Istanbul and will hopefully carry forward the threads of the draft agreement negotiated in March 2022. But caveats must be added. The fact that it took Turkish President Recep Erdogan three hours to persuade Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to green light the negotiations speaks for itself.
On the other hand, Zelensky showed remarkable flexibility by violating his own presidential decree banning any such negotiations on the part of Ukrainian officials other than himself with Russian officials. Turkey showed again that it remains a significant influencer in the Ukraine conflict.
The result was an extraordinary spectacle. Reports mention that the Russian delegation had not one but three meetings, in fact — with a Turkish-American team followed by a Turkish-American-Ukrainian team and culminating in an exclusive huddle with the Ukrainian team.
The ‘bilateral’ Russian-Ukrainian negotiations reportedly touched on the topics of ceasefire options in the Ukraine conflict; a major prisoner exchange; a potential meeting between Zelensky and Russian president Vladimir Putin; an agreement in principle to hold a follow-up meeting and so on.
The Ukrainian media reported that the Russian side repeated their demands for Kiev’s forces to vacate the remaining parts of the four eastern and southern regions that Moscow has annexed. Ukraine of course rejected the demand. Indeed, these talking points at the Istanbul meeting would have been a plateful for a meeting that lasted only for an hour and forty minutes.
Meanwhile, Turkiye has (re)joined as a stakeholder, as the peacemaking in Ukraine provides an opportunity for it to work closely with the US, which could have positive fallouts for the two main discords that put strains on it in recent years — Syria and the Kurdish problem. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party took a historic decision on May 12 to give up armed struggle and dissolve itself, which opens the possibility to end decades of political violence in Turkiye. The ‘peacemaker president’ in the White House can help Ankara.
Turkiye promoted the US’ normalisation with the Islamist government in Damascus. Trump’s meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh on Wednesday alongside the lifting of sanctions against Syria shake up the geopolitics of the Middle East, and bring Ankara and Washington on the same page.
Notably, all this is happening against the backdrop of a ‘westernist’ tilt in Turkish foreign policies during the past year following Erdogan’s re-election. Traditionally, the equations between Trump and Erdogan have remained friendly. Suffice to say, Trump can expect Erdogan’s cooperation in the peacemaking in Ukraine, where the Turkish leader’s excellent equations with Zelensky are an asset, which was on display in Ankara yesterday.
Erdogan held Zelensky’s hand through thick and thin. The high-tech Turkish drones supplied to Ukraine, which are to be manufactured locally, will significantly boost Kiev’s military capability. Turkiye, the inheritor of Ottoman legacy, is a home away from home for Tatar community. Tatar language is an Oghuz language descended from Ottoman Turkish. Ukrainian Defence Minister, a close associate of Zelensky, is an ethnic Tatar. In fact, Turkey has refused to recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
Moscow understands all this. Putin hastened to put behind the friction in Russo-Turkish relations in the downstream of the regime change in Syria last December to reach out to Erdogan on May 11 to discuss the direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. The Kremlin readout said Erdogan “expressed his full support for Russia’s proposal and emphasised his willingness to provide a venue for the talks in Istanbul. The Turkish side will offer all possible assistance in organising and holding talks aimed at achieving sustainable peace… The leaders have also expressed mutual interest in further expanding the bilateral ties in trade and investment and, in particular, implementing joint strategic projects in energy.”
Erdogan is a difficult interlocutor but Putin has been largely successful in keeping the relationship stable and (mostly) predictable. The Turkish factor can be a game changer if at some point Zelensky ceases to be the captive of CoW4 (four European musketeers of the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ — Britain, France, Germany and Poland.) Trust Erdogan to shift gear to an activist role.
On the whole, Russia has scored a diplomatic victory insofar as its initiative on ‘Ukraine direct talks without preconditions’ has found acceptability with Trump. The format of yesterday’s talks implied a resumption of the Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul in 2022. Putin manoeuvred astutely to scatter the game plan of CoW4 which strove to pull aside Trump and become party to its war plans in Ukraine.
The CoW4 felt encouraged lately by a certain perception that Trump may impose draconian sanctions if Russia lacked sincerity of purpose. But so far, Trump remains engaged with Putin. Last week, Trump stated that a breakthrough in Ukraine conflict will be possible only via a summit with Putin. Suffice to say, the dramatic happenings in Turkey yesterday signify a setback for CoW4.
The leader of the Russian delegation and presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky (who also led the talks in Istanbul in March 2022) told the media that Moscow is “satisfied” with the results of the talks and is ready to “resume contacts” with Kiev.
That said, Moscow will not let down its guard. Putin held a briefing session on May 15 with the permanent members of the Security Council, Russia’s highest policymaking body, to deliberate on the Istanbul talks. The Kremlin readout stated that Putin “set tasks and charted the negotiating position” of the Russian delegation in Istanbul.
On the other hand, the Kremlin also asserted simultaneously that no matter the Istanbul talks, Russia’s military operations in Ukraine shall continue. With immaculate timing, Putin chose May 15 to also make the stunning announcement of the appointment of Colonel-General Andrey Mordvichev (nicknamed “General Breakthrough”) as the Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
Gen. Mordvichev, who is under Western sanctions, has a tough reputation as the commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of Russia’s Southern Military District, which was heavily involved in the devastating 2022 siege of Mariupol, and in the Battle of Avdiivka in 2023-2024, turning points in the Ukraine conflict. Gen. Mordvichev’s appointment comes amidst reports claiming that Russia is preparing to launch a major offensive in Ukraine. Over 650,000 Russian troops are presently deployed in Ukraine.
Evidently, the strategic ambiguity at the core of the Russian intentions in Ukraine continues. Putin is determined to keep things that way and to extract advantages thereof in the months (or years) ahead. Gen. Mordvichev’s appointment superseding several senior generals will be noted in NATO capitals.
In a 2023 interview, on a timeline for the Russian operations in Ukraine, the general bluntly remarked that there was still “plenty of time.” He then added, “If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to, of course then it will be longer.”
Zelensky is also moving on a dual track. Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergeii Marchenko told a high-level panel at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development annual meeting on March 14 in London, “To prepare for peace, you have to get ready for war. We have to plan. You may call me a cynic, but actually I’m just a Finance Minister.”